The fundamental and macro aspects of the hottest C

2022-08-07
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China Securities Futures: the fundamentals and macro aspects are superimposed on Shanghai rubber to continue the weak pattern

comments last week

Japan rubber almost showed a unilateral decline pattern last week. The main April contract fell on Monday, hitting a new low since the contract was listed, showing a new decline pattern. Then it repeated slightly on Tuesday, but the focus still moved down slightly. On Wednesday, it expanded its decline again. On Thursday, it reached a decline of 20 yen, which had been fused four times, Although it pulled back slightly to 259 yen on Friday, the final weekly decline reached 9.17%; Technically, there is some support around 250 yen in the short term, but the overall trend is still in a downward pattern. Therefore, the strength of the rebound is questioned. It is expected that the above 280 yen will become a strong resistance level to the rebound

last week, Shanghai Jiaotong also showed a unilateral decline pattern. The main 1201 contract failed to continue the strong rebound trend of the previous Friday, but suffered pressure on Monday. It was a performance indicator that fell back again. In the first three trading days, there was still some competition between long and short positions, and the market showed a shock and slow decline pattern. However, it fell below the recent low of 25730 yuan at the end of Wednesday, reached the limit on Thursday, and the decline slowed down on Friday, However, it continued the weak pattern and set a new low after adjustment, with a weekly decline of 11.93%

from the perspective of information, the market pressure comes from the superposition of fundamentals and macro aspects. First of all, although Japan's inventory of fundamentals declined slightly in the latest cycle, it is still at a high level in recent years. The Chinese market reached 220000 tons in October as soon as possible, and still increased significantly at the same time. However, consumer enterprises are cautious in purchasing. It is expected that the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone will remain high; Secondly, it is difficult to eliminate the anxiety of the automobile industry. The impact of the Thai flood on the cleaning of Japanese cars is still not over. China announced last week that the production and sales of cars in October fell again, which increased the market concern; In addition, the price of synthetic rubber did not contain the decline pattern due to the recent strong rise in international crude oil prices. As of last Friday, the price of styrene butadiene rubber fell back to 19200 yuan, the price difference with Tianjiao continued to expand beyond normal, and the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber also fell to a low of 22200 yuan; Three fundamental factors drag down the formation of natural rubber; However, before the weekend, the three Southeast Asian countries reached an agreement to set the lower limit of the selling price at $3000, which gave a boost to Tianjiao to some extent

in addition, the macro pressure also increased last week. Although the internal and external macro aspects seemed to improve slightly in October, especially the rescue package reached at the EU summit, the subsequent referendum on the Greek plan caught the market unprepared. Although the final referendum was not put into practice, it highlighted the unstable side of the euro zone; In November, the expected G20 summit and finance ministers' meeting also failed to reach substantive measures, but it is planned to preliminarily complete the detailed plan by the end of this month; However, during this period, Italy seems to have been pushed to the top of the storm again, and the sharp increase in Italian bond yields has once again aroused market concern; Therefore, it also led to the overall decline of commodities in the near future

however, the information over the weekend seemed to ease the anxiety slightly. The Italian Senate approved the economic growth plan, which may alleviate the worries caused by the crisis to a certain extent; However, this does not mean that the European problem has been solved. Perhaps the effectiveness of the details of the rescue plan at the end of the month has more important guidance; Moreover, the rise of short-term French treasury bond yields has also attracted the attention of the market. On the whole, the situation in Europe is still unstable

according to the comprehensive analysis, last week, under the pressure of fundamentals and macro aspects, Shanghai Jiaotong Rubber Co., Ltd. formed a new decline trend and broke down. The neutral and weak pattern has not changed. However, Southeast Asia jointly intervened or boosted the fundamentals, and the international market information eased concerns slightly. Therefore, it is expected that there will be a rebound demand after the rapid decline in the short term, but the rebound height is still in doubt when the overall environment is not optimistic, It is expected that 26000-27000 above will form a resistance zone

in terms of operation, the short line air microcomputer controlled message universal testing machine is mainly used to pick up and measure the dynamic and static mechanical properties of various material components, parts, elastomers, rubber elastomers and shock absorbers. The machine can be selected to leave the site first; The middle line blank order can still be held, with a stop loss of 27000 yuan

viewpoint review

November 7, November 8, November 9, November 10, November 11

empty orders left the market to wait and see if they fell below the low point. Empty orders entered the market again. Empty orders held by empty orders held by empty orders

trend analysis

* price comparison between internal and external markets

the ratio of Shanghai rubber to Japanese rubber showed some signs of rising last week, mainly because the daily rubber fell significantly, especially when the domestic market fell by the limit on Thursday, the daily rubber fell by more than 6%, Therefore, the internal/external ratio was pushed up to 97. Although the domestic market fell slightly on Friday and the Japanese rubber rebounded slightly, the internal/external ratio only fell slightly to the relatively high level of 93

Figure 1: the price comparison relationship between Shanghai Jiao and Japan Jiao

source: Wenhua China Securities Futures Research Department

note: the reprinted contents are indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with their views or confirm the authenticity of their contents

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